Wins + Dingers

Tonight's HR Probability Board

September 23, 2026 · 234 hitters in posted lineups · model chain: Statcast talent → starter matchup → park × temp × wind → lineup-slot plate appearances

#	Player	Park	Opposing SP	Env	vs usual	P(HR)	Fair odds	Fair ¢	Bid ≤	BBE
1	García Jr., Luis LHB · #3	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+12%	15.9%	+530	16¢	13¢	349
2	Rice, Ben LHB · #1	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	15.7%	+536	16¢	12¢	268
3	Alvarez, Yordan LHB · #2	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	-18%	14.6%	+584	15¢	11¢	302
4	Mesa Jr., Victor LHB · #1	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-1%	14.5%	+587	15¢	11¢	124
5	Olson, Matt LHB · #3	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.97	+17%	14.4%	+595	14¢	11¢	182
6	Soto, Juan LHB · #2	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.01	+17%	14.3%	+599	14¢	11¢	113
7	De La Cruz, Elly RHB · #2	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-7%	14.2%	+604	14¢	11¢	108
8	Crow-Armstrong, Pete LHB · #1	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.84	-11%	14.0%	+613	14¢	11¢	301
9	Seager, Corey LHB · #2	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-4%	14.0%	+614	14¢	11¢	180
10	Caminero, Junior RHB · #3	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+2%	13.9%	+622	14¢	11¢	349
11	Canzone, Dominic LHB · #3	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+1%	13.6%	+634	14¢	11¢	268
12	Chourio, Jackson RHB · #2	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.91	+4%	13.5%	+642	13¢	11¢	266
13	Alvarez, Francisco RHB · #7	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +30%	13.4%	+647	13¢	10¢	62
14	Schwarber, Kyle LHB · #1	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	13.4%	+647	13¢	10¢	211
15	Lewis, Royce RHB · #6	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.13	+17%	13.3%	+651	13¢	10¢	98
16	Baldwin, Drake LHB · #1	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.97	+18%	13.2%	+656	13¢	10¢	151
17	Ramos, Heliot RHB · #4	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	13.2%	+660	13¢	10¢	202
18	Raleigh, Cal LHB · #4	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+1%	13.1%	+661	13¢	10¢	183
19	Vientos, Mark RHB · #4	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	12.9%	+674	13¢	10¢	83
20	Stewart, Sal RHB · #3	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-7%	12.7%	+687	13¢	10¢	110
21	Jones, Spencer LHB · #5	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	12.7%	+689	13¢	10¢	116
22	Bericoto, Victor RHB · #3	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.13	+6%	12.7%	+690	13¢	10¢	37
23	Bell, Josh RHB · #3	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.13	+17%	12.6%	+695	13¢	10¢	150
24	Harper, Bryce LHB · #3	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	12.5%	+699	13¢	10¢	267
25	Wood, James LHB · #1	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.82	▼ -21%	12.5%	+702	12¢	10¢	119
26	Burleson, Alec LHB · #3	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	12.5%	+703	12¢	10¢	322
27	Mitchell, Garrett LHB · #1	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	12.4%	+703	12¢	10¢	216
28	Vargas, Miguel RHB · #3	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.81	-14%	12.4%	+706	12¢	10¢	323
29	Aranda, Jonathan LHB · #2	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-1%	12.4%	+708	12¢	10¢	305
30	Jeffers, Ryan RHB · #4	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.13	+17%	12.3%	+715	12¢	10¢	90
31	Alonso, Pete RHB · #2	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	12.2%	+718	12¢	10¢	291
32	Contreras, William RHB · #4	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.91	+5%	12.1%	+729	12¢	9¢	338
33	Nimmo, Brandon LHB · #4	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-5%	12.1%	+729	12¢	9¢	289
34	Bauers, Jake LHB · #5	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	12.0%	+732	12¢	9¢	217
35	Bichette, Bo RHB · #3	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	12.0%	+732	12¢	9¢	136
36	Lindor, Francisco RHB · #1	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	12.0%	+733	12¢	9¢	100
37	Murakami, Munetaka LHB · #4	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.80	-14%	12.0%	+735	12¢	9¢	174
38	Alonso, Pete RHB · #2	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	11.8%	+747	12¢	9¢	291
39	Suzuki, Seiya RHB · #2	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.85	-5%	11.7%	+758	12¢	9¢	279
40	Harris II, Michael LHB · #5	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.97	+18%	11.6%	+759	12¢	9¢	166
41	Conine, Griffin LHB · #4	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.84	▼ -24%	11.5%	+768	12¢	9¢	135
42	Flores Jr., Rafael RHB · #2	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+2%	11.5%	+769	12¢	9¢	44
43	Smith, Cam RHB · #7	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	11.4%	+780	11¢	9¢	260
44	Riley, Austin RHB · #6	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.98	+11%	11.3%	+788	11¢	9¢	100
45	Reynolds, Bryan RHB · #3	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+2%	11.2%	+791	11¢	9¢	156
46	Stowers, Kyle LHB · #2	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.84	▼ -24%	11.1%	+800	11¢	9¢	219
47	Witt Jr., Bobby RHB · #2	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.81	▼ -26%	11.1%	+802	11¢	9¢	116
48	Trammell, Taylor LHB · #6	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	-18%	11.1%	+803	11¢	9¢	135
49	Walker, Christian RHB · #5	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	11.1%	+803	11¢	9¢	324
50	Walker, Jordan RHB · #4	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -23%	11.0%	+812	11¢	8¢	314
51	Abreu, Wilyer LHB · #4	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.74	-12%	11.0%	+812	11¢	8¢	146
52	Whitcomb, Shay RHB · #8	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.13	+6%	10.8%	+823	11¢	8¢	26
53	Greene, Riley LHB · #4	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-16%	10.8%	+823	11¢	8¢	104
54	Rodriguez, Emmanuel LHB · #7	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.01	+13%	10.8%	+830	11¢	8¢	10
55	Hernández, Heriberto RHB · #3	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.85	-5%	10.7%	+832	11¢	8¢	193
56	Bernal, Leo LHB · #5	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	10.7%	+837	11¢	8¢	43
57	McMahon, Ryan LHB · #8	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	10.6%	+840	11¢	8¢	181
58	Chisholm Jr., Jazz LHB · #6	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	10.6%	+844	11¢	8¢	221
59	Benge, Carson LHB · #5	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.01	+17%	10.5%	+849	11¢	8¢	112
60	Lowe, Brandon LHB · #4	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	-6%	10.5%	+849	11¢	8¢	115
61	Conforto, Michael LHB · #4	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.84	-11%	10.5%	+852	10¢	8¢	173
62	Mayer, Marcelo LHB · #7	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.01	+17%	10.4%	+859	10¢	8¢	16
63	Okamoto, Kazuma RHB · #4	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	10.4%	+862	10¢	8¢	274
64	Montes, Lazaro LHB · #8	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+1%	10.4%	+865	10¢	8¢	14
65	Ross, Ben RHB · #9	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.13	+17%	10.3%	+871	10¢	8¢	4
66	Happ, Ian LHB · #5	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.84	-11%	10.2%	+880	10¢	8¢	267
67	Chaparro, Andrés RHB · #2	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	10.2%	+884	10¢	8¢	84
68	Suárez, Eugenio RHB · #5	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-7%	10.1%	+886	10¢	8¢	57
69	Henderson, Gunnar LHB · #3	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	10.1%	+891	10¢	8¢	310
70	Caglianone, Jac LHB · #3	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.80	▼ -24%	10.1%	+892	10¢	8¢	108
71	Beavers, Dylan LHB · #1	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	9.9%	+912	10¢	8¢	173
72	Yelich, Christian LHB · #7	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	9.9%	+914	10¢	8¢	219
73	Turang, Brice LHB · #3	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	9.9%	+914	10¢	8¢	279
74	Davidson, Bo LHB · #4	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.01	+18%	9.8%	+915	10¢	8¢	1
75	Teel, Kyle LHB · #2	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.80	-14%	9.8%	+924	10¢	8¢	42
76	Brito, Juan RHB · #1	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-7%	9.8%	+926	10¢	7¢	27
77	Benintendi, Andrew LHB · #5	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.80	-14%	9.7%	+928	10¢	7¢	280
78	Langford, Wyatt RHB · #1	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	9.7%	+928	10¢	7¢	198
79	McLain, Matt RHB · #6	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-7%	9.7%	+934	10¢	7¢	78
80	Cowser, Colton LHB · #6	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	9.7%	+935	10¢	7¢	186
81	Henderson, Gunnar LHB · #3	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.86	-18%	9.7%	+935	10¢	7¢	310
82	Sabato, Aaron RHB · #8	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.13	+17%	9.7%	+936	10¢	7¢	1
83	Perez, Salvador RHB · #6	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.81	▼ -26%	9.7%	+936	10¢	7¢	127
84	Semien, Marcus RHB · #6	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	9.6%	+937	10¢	7¢	98
85	Mateo, Jorge RHB · #9	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+2%	9.6%	+937	10¢	7¢	77
86	Diaz, Yainer RHB · #4	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	9.6%	+940	10¢	7¢	201
87	Rodríguez, Julio RHB · #5	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.93	-10%	9.6%	+941	10¢	7¢	312
88	Lee, Hao-Yu RHB · #2	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	9.6%	+943	10¢	7¢	99
89	Marsh, Brandon LHB · #7	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	9.6%	+946	10¢	7¢	306
90	Jensen, Carter LHB · #1	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.80	▼ -24%	9.5%	+949	10¢	7¢	97
91	Roden, Alan LHB · #5	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.01	+13%	9.5%	+949	10¢	7¢	13
92	Anthony, Roman LHB · #1	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.74	-12%	9.5%	+953	10¢	7¢	54
93	Burger, Jake RHB · #6	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	9.5%	+954	9¢	7¢	271
94	Cox, Jonah RHB · #1	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.13	+6%	9.5%	+954	9¢	7¢	38
95	Beavers, Dylan LHB · #1	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.86	-17%	9.5%	+956	9¢	7¢	173
96	House, Brady RHB · #3	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	9.4%	+963	9¢	7¢	70
97	Murphy, Sean RHB · #7	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.98	+11%	9.4%	+966	9¢	7¢	17
98	Crawford, J.P. LHB · #1	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+2%	9.4%	+966	9¢	7¢	208
99	Abrams, CJ LHB · #4	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.82	▼ -21%	9.4%	+967	9¢	7¢	124
100	Crews, Dylan RHB · #5	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	9.3%	+970	9¢	7¢	94
101	Knizner, Andrew RHB · #5	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.13	+6%	9.3%	+976	9¢	7¢	32
102	Lombard Jr., George RHB · #2	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	9.3%	+976	9¢	7¢	88
103	Montgomery, Colson LHB · #8	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.80	-14%	9.3%	+978	9¢	7¢	219
104	Cowser, Colton LHB · #6	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.86	-17%	9.2%	+985	9¢	7¢	186
105	Harris, Brett RHB · #6	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.13	+6%	9.2%	+985	9¢	7¢	13
106	Ewing, A.J. LHB · #8	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.01	+17%	9.2%	+986	9¢	7¢	82
107	Okamoto, Kazuma RHB · #3	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -43%	9.1%	+999	9¢	7¢	274
108	Lopez, Otto RHB · #1	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.85	-5%	9.1%	+1004	9¢	7¢	398
109	Simon, Ronny RHB · #6	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+2%	9.0%	+1005	9¢	7¢	15
110	Jones, Jahmai RHB · #3	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.76	-11%	9.0%	+1010	9¢	7¢	83
111	Lee, Brooks RHB · #2	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.13	+17%	9.0%	+1012	9¢	7¢	135
112	Arozarena, Randy RHB · #2	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.93	-10%	9.0%	+1015	9¢	7¢	287
113	Busch, Michael LHB · #3	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.84	-11%	9.0%	+1015	9¢	7¢	299
114	Morabito, Nick RHB · #9	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	8.9%	+1017	9¢	7¢	6
115	Hicklen, Brewer RHB · #8	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.98	+12%	8.9%	+1020	9¢	7¢	3
116	Encarnacion-Strand, Christian RHB · #5	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	8.9%	+1022	9¢	7¢	87
117	Keys, Sean LHB · #5	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.86	-15%	8.9%	+1024	9¢	7¢	31
118	Jung, Josh RHB · #3	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	8.9%	+1024	9¢	7¢	231
119	Griffin, Konnor RHB · #1	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	8.8%	+1030	9¢	7¢	57
120	Hill, Turner LHB · #2	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.01	+18%	8.8%	+1030	9¢	7¢	24
121	Lowe, Nathaniel LHB · #6	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -25%	8.8%	+1035	9¢	7¢	244
122	Morales, Yohandy RHB · #6	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	8.8%	+1036	9¢	7¢	12
123	Smith, Josh LHB · #2	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.86	-15%	8.7%	+1044	9¢	7¢	132
124	Stott, Bryson LHB · #6	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	8.7%	+1044	9¢	7¢	324
125	Schneider, Davis RHB · #6	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	8.7%	+1047	9¢	7¢	38
126	Gorman, Nolan LHB · #6	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	8.7%	+1048	9¢	7¢	138
127	Monasterio, Andruw RHB · #9	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.76	-11%	8.7%	+1055	9¢	7¢	85
128	Dingler, Dillon RHB · #5	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	8.6%	+1063	9¢	7¢	120
129	Encarnacion-Strand, Christian RHB · #5	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	8.6%	+1067	9¢	7¢	87
130	Swanson, Dansby RHB · #8	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.85	-5%	8.5%	+1071	9¢	7¢	221
131	Vilade, Ryan RHB · #7	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+2%	8.5%	+1071	9¢	7¢	62
132	Pasquantino, Vinnie LHB · #5	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.80	▼ -24%	8.5%	+1075	9¢	6¢	90
133	Young, Cole LHB · #7	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+2%	8.5%	+1081	8¢	6¢	312
134	Torkelson, Spencer RHB · #7	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	8.5%	+1082	8¢	6¢	101
135	Amaya, Miguel RHB · #9	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.85	-4%	8.5%	+1083	8¢	6¢	96
136	Sogard, Nick RHB · #2	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.76	-11%	8.4%	+1092	8¢	6¢	41
137	Turner, Trea RHB · #2	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.91	-12%	8.4%	+1096	8¢	6¢	316
138	Hicks, Liam LHB · #4	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-2%	8.3%	+1105	8¢	6¢	330
139	McGonigle, Kevin LHB · #1	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-16%	8.3%	+1105	8¢	6¢	140
140	Cabrera, Oswaldo RHB · #7	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-7%	8.3%	+1105	8¢	6¢	1
141	Koss, Christian RHB · #9	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.13	+5%	8.3%	+1106	8¢	6¢	44
142	Keaschall, Luke RHB · #1	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.13	+17%	8.2%	+1112	8¢	6¢	142
143	Smith, Josh LHB · #5	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	8.2%	+1117	8¢	6¢	132
144	Antonacci, Sam LHB · #1	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.80	-13%	8.2%	+1124	8¢	6¢	313
145	Ford, Harry RHB · #7	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	8.1%	+1129	8¢	6¢	30
146	Dubón, Mauricio RHB · #2	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.98	+11%	8.1%	+1129	8¢	6¢	175
147	McAdoo, Charles RHB · #7	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	8.1%	+1135	8¢	6¢	32
148	Sánchez, Ali RHB · #9	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	8.0%	+1147	8¢	6¢	29
149	Duran, Ezequiel RHB · #5	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	8.0%	+1148	8¢	6¢	288
150	Banfield, Will RHB · #8	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-8%	8.0%	+1148	8¢	6¢	3
151	Peters, Tristan LHB · #6	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.80	-13%	8.0%	+1150	8¢	6¢	295
152	Mayo, Coby RHB · #4	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	8.0%	+1152	8¢	6¢	164
153	DeLauter, Chase LHB · #3	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -25%	8.0%	+1153	8¢	6¢	279
154	Paredes, Isaac RHB · #3	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	8.0%	+1156	8¢	6¢	351
155	Albies, Ozzie RHB · #4	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.98	+12%	7.9%	+1161	8¢	6¢	218
156	Pauley, Graham LHB · #8	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.84	▼ -24%	7.9%	+1163	8¢	6¢	96
157	Jackson, Jeremiah RHB · #7	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	7.9%	+1169	8¢	6¢	139
158	Adell, Jo RHB · #4	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.76	▼ -28%	7.8%	+1176	8¢	6¢	308
159	Altuve, Jose RHB · #1	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	7.8%	+1176	8¢	6¢	304
160	Palacios, Richie LHB · #6	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-2%	7.8%	+1184	8¢	6¢	225
161	Realmuto, J.T. RHB · #8	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.91	-12%	7.8%	+1185	8¢	6¢	221
162	Valenzuela, Brandon LHB · #7	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	7.8%	+1189	8¢	6¢	120
163	Myers, Dane RHB · #4	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-7%	7.8%	+1189	8¢	6¢	90
164	Caballero, José RHB · #7	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	7.8%	+1190	8¢	6¢	215
165	Mayo, Coby RHB · #4	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.7%	+1199	8¢	6¢	164
166	Rutschman, Adley RHB · #5	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.76	-11%	7.7%	+1202	8¢	6¢	105
167	Mullins, Cedric LHB · #8	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-1%	7.7%	+1204	8¢	6¢	258
168	Franklin, Christian RHB · #8	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.6%	+1209	8¢	6¢	10
169	Guerrero Jr., Vladimir RHB · #2	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -44%	7.6%	+1209	8¢	6¢	348
170	DeLuca, Jonny RHB · #5	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+3%	7.6%	+1211	8¢	6¢	151
171	Hayes, Ke'Bryan RHB · #9	ATL	Chris Sale	x0.98	-8%	7.6%	+1211	8¢	6¢	42
172	Jackson, Jeremiah RHB · #7	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.6%	+1223	8¢	6¢	139
173	Mack, Joe LHB · #9	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.84	▼ -24%	7.5%	+1230	8¢	6¢	177
174	Rave, John LHB · #8	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.80	▼ -24%	7.5%	+1230	8¢	6¢	24
175	Malgeri, Ben RHB · #3	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	7.5%	+1230	8¢	6¢	46
176	Naylor, Josh LHB · #6	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+2%	7.5%	+1235	7¢	6¢	332
177	Ortiz, Joey RHB · #6	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.91	+5%	7.5%	+1237	7¢	6¢	186
178	Garcia, Maikel RHB · #4	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.81	▼ -26%	7.5%	+1239	7¢	6¢	56
179	Carter, Evan LHB · #9	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-5%	7.5%	+1240	7¢	6¢	235
180	O'Hearn, Ryan LHB · #7	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	-7%	7.4%	+1246	7¢	6¢	92
181	Halpin, Petey LHB · #8	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -26%	7.4%	+1248	7¢	6¢	110
182	Jansen, Danny RHB · #8	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	7.4%	+1248	7¢	6¢	99
183	Wetherholt, JJ LHB · #1	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	7.4%	+1248	7¢	6¢	265
184	Bohm, Alec RHB · #5	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.91	-12%	7.3%	+1272	7¢	5¢	315
185	Bailey, Patrick LHB · #7	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -25%	7.3%	+1274	7¢	5¢	184
186	Rafaela, Ceddanne RHB · #6	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.76	-11%	7.2%	+1279	7¢	5¢	103
187	Kim, Ha-Seong RHB · #9	ATL	Andrew Abbott	x0.98	+12%	7.2%	+1291	7¢	5¢	38
188	Herrera, Iván RHB · #2	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -23%	7.2%	+1295	7¢	5¢	320
189	Springer, George RHB · #4	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -43%	7.1%	+1308	7¢	5¢	252
190	Kirk, Alejandro RHB · #3	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	7.1%	+1308	7¢	5¢	166
191	Peck, John RHB · #8	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	7.1%	+1314	7¢	5¢	15
192	Spence, Lucas LHB · #8	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	-18%	7.1%	+1316	7¢	5¢	14
193	Massey, Michael LHB · #7	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.80	▼ -24%	7.1%	+1316	7¢	5¢	74
194	Narváez, Carlos RHB · #9	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	7.0%	+1337	7¢	5¢	115
195	Young, Jacob RHB · #8	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	7.0%	+1339	7¢	5¢	118
196	Pozo, Yohel RHB · #9	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.0%	+1339	7¢	5¢	25
197	Church, Nathan LHB · #8	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	6.9%	+1343	7¢	5¢	268
198	Ramírez, Agustín RHB · #7	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.85	-5%	6.9%	+1351	7¢	5¢	101
199	Story, Trevor RHB · #8	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.76	-10%	6.8%	+1362	7¢	5¢	40
200	Bazzana, Travis LHB · #5	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -26%	6.8%	+1373	7¢	5¢	238
201	Wilson, Weston RHB · #9	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.93	-10%	6.7%	+1386	7¢	5¢	36
202	Taveras, Leody LHB · #8	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	6.7%	+1390	7¢	5¢	213
203	Ramírez, Pedro LHB · #7	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.84	-12%	6.7%	+1397	7¢	5¢	149
204	Montgomery, Braden LHB · #9	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.80	-14%	6.6%	+1408	7¢	5¢	176
205	Lukes, Nathan LHB · #1	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.86	-15%	6.6%	+1420	7¢	5¢	281
206	Lukes, Nathan LHB · #1	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	6.5%	+1429	7¢	5¢	281
207	Sanoja, Javier RHB · #5	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.85	-5%	6.5%	+1434	7¢	5¢	283
208	Durbin, Caleb RHB · #7	BOS	Foster Griffin	x0.76	-11%	6.4%	+1465	6¢	5¢	117
209	Ramírez, José LHB · #2	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -25%	6.3%	+1475	6¢	5¢	270
210	Mangum, Jake RHB · #9	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	6.3%	+1490	6¢	5¢	93
211	Clark, Max LHB · #6	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-17%	6.1%	+1545	6¢	4¢	46
212	Meidroth, Chase RHB · #7	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.81	-14%	6.1%	+1550	6¢	4¢	300
213	Giménez, Andrés LHB · #6	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	6.0%	+1553	6¢	4¢	261
214	Hamilton, David LHB · #9	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	6.0%	+1558	6¢	4¢	205
215	Collins, Isaac RHB · #9	KC	Bryan Hudson	x0.81	▼ -26%	6.0%	+1564	6¢	4¢	105
216	Frelick, Sal LHB · #8	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-2%	6.0%	+1569	6¢	4¢	218
217	Marsee, Jakob LHB · #6	CHC	Kevin Gausman	x0.84	▼ -24%	5.9%	+1581	6¢	4¢	310
218	Allen, Nick RHB · #9	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	5.7%	+1667	6¢	4¢	81
219	Triolo, Jared RHB · #8	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	5.6%	+1683	6¢	4¢	109
220	Arraez, Luis LHB · #4	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-1%	5.4%	+1748	5¢	4¢	398
221	Winn, Masyn RHB · #9	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -23%	5.3%	+1801	5¢	4¢	263
222	Gonzales, Nick RHB · #5	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	5.2%	+1805	5¢	4¢	142
223	Straw, Myles RHB · #8	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	4.7%	+2051	5¢	3¢	122
224	McKinstry, Zach LHB · #9	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-16%	4.6%	+2083	5¢	3¢	62
225	Fermín, José RHB · #7	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -24%	4.6%	+2093	5¢	3¢	151
226	Clement, Ernie RHB · #9	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	4.4%	+2152	4¢	3¢	354
227	Rocchio, Brayan LHB · #9	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -25%	4.3%	+2231	4¢	3¢	295
228	Hoerner, Nico RHB · #6	CHC	Ryan Gusto	x0.85	-4%	4.3%	+2247	4¢	3¢	417
229	Crawford, Justin LHB · #9	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-1%	4.1%	+2333	4¢	3¢	293
230	Nuñez, Nasim RHB · #9	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	4.0%	+2432	4¢	3¢	99
231	Straw, Myles RHB · #8	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -44%	3.9%	+2484	4¢	3¢	122
232	Lopez, Nicky LHB · #7	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-5%	3.9%	+2491	4¢	3¢	152
233	Clement, Ernie RHB · #9	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -44%	3.7%	+2617	4¢	3¢	354
234	Kwan, Steven LHB · #1	BOS	Sonny Gray	x0.74	▼ -25%	3.3%	+2894	3¢	2¢	329

Game HR totals

Game	Park	Exp. HR	P(3+ HR)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles	BAL	2.83	54%
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	NYY	2.16	37%
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers	TEX	2.00	32%
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants	SF	1.99	32%
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves	ATL	1.94	31%
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners	SEA	1.85	28%
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies	PHI	1.76	26%
Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs	CHC	1.66	23%
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals	KC	1.63	22%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	PIT	1.51	20%
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers	DET	1.50	19%
Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox	BOS	1.30	14%
ALL GAMES (12)		22.1

Expected combined home runs, both teams, from summing every hitter's modeled rate; P(3+) is the Poisson chance the game clears a 2.5 line.

How to read it: "vs usual" compares tonight's modeled rate to the hitter's own season talent baseline -- it isolates what the matchup and ballpark/weather are doing to HIS normal night. ▲ +25% or more is an unusually favorable setup; ▼ -20% or worse is an unusually hostile one. A star can be elevated and a scrub suppressed on the same slate; this column is about the setup, not the player. "Fair ¢" is the model's probability as a prediction-market price; "Bid ≤" is the maximum resting bid that keeps an 18%+ edge after the maker's margin -- offers above it are paying more than the model thinks the outcome is worth. P(HR) is the model's probability the player hits at least one home run tonight. "Fair odds" is that probability expressed as an American line -- a posted price longer than fair suggests value, shorter suggests the market likes him more than the model does. BBE is the batted-ball sample behind his talent estimate; small samples are regressed hard toward league average.

Model probabilities, not betting advice. Environment factors are approximations under continuous calibration. Lineups update through the afternoon; rerun snapshots may differ.