Tonight's HR Probability Board

Yesterday's results & model scoreboard →

August 07, 2026 · 268 hitters in posted lineups · model chain: Statcast talent → starter matchup → park × temp × wind → lineup-slot plate appearances

#	Player	Park	Opposing SP	Env	P(HR)	Fair odds	Fair ¢	Bid ≤	BBE
1	Rice, Ben LHB · #2	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.47	29.6%	+238	30¢	24¢	189
2	Ohtani, Shohei LHB · #1	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.02	29.1%	+244	29¢	23¢	194
3	García Jr., Luis LHB · #4	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.47	28.0%	+258	28¢	22¢	258
4	Olson, Matt LHB · #4	NYY	Max Fried	x1.47	27.6%	+263	28¢	22¢	140
5	Baldwin, Drake LHB · #2	NYY	Max Fried	x1.47	26.8%	+273	27¢	21¢	110
6	Burleson, Alec LHB · #3	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.19	26.8%	+274	27¢	21¢	242
7	Goodman, Hunter RHB · #4	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.21	25.8%	+288	26¢	21¢	176
8	Moniak, Mickey LHB · #3	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.19	24.6%	+307	25¢	20¢	166
9	Muncy, Max LHB · #4	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.02	24.3%	+312	24¢	19¢	191
10	Stewart, Sal RHB · #2	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.22	24.2%	+313	24¢	19¢	249
11	Walker, Jordan RHB · #2	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.21	24.1%	+315	24¢	19¢	235
12	Caglianone, Jac LHB · #3	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.07	23.6%	+324	24¢	19¢	194
13	Caminero, Junior RHB · #3	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.93	23.3%	+330	23¢	19¢	251
14	Bauers, Jake LHB · #3	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.06	23.2%	+331	23¢	19¢	178
15	Grisham, Trent LHB · #1	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.47	22.8%	+339	23¢	18¢	191
16	Abrams, CJ LHB · #1	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.21	22.6%	+342	23¢	18¢	225
17	Ramos, Heliot RHB · #3	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.27	22.6%	+342	23¢	18¢	161
18	Stephenson, Tyler RHB · #4	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.22	22.4%	+346	22¢	18¢	152
19	Freeman, Freddie LHB · #3	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.02	22.4%	+346	22¢	18¢	237
20	Harper, Bryce LHB · #3	PHI	José Soriano	x1.16	22.3%	+348	22¢	18¢	201
21	Chourio, Jackson RHB · #2	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.04	22.3%	+349	22¢	18¢	187
22	Abreu, Wilyer LHB · #3	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.20	22.2%	+351	22¢	18¢	226
23	Alvarez, Yordan LHB · #2	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.93	22.1%	+354	22¢	18¢	91
24	Mitchell, Garrett LHB · #5	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.06	21.8%	+359	22¢	17¢	161
25	Schwarber, Kyle LHB · #1	PHI	José Soriano	x1.16	21.4%	+368	21¢	17¢	140
26	Lewis, Royce RHB · #3	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.04	21.1%	+375	21¢	17¢	60
27	Sánchez, Jesús LHB · #3	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.16	21.0%	+377	21¢	17¢	155
28	Vargas, Miguel RHB · #3	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.10	20.8%	+380	21¢	17¢	101
29	Carroll, Corbin LHB · #2	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.02	20.5%	+387	21¢	16¢	215
30	Dingler, Dillon RHB · #3	SF	JT Brubaker	x1.02	20.4%	+389	20¢	16¢	213
31	De La Cruz, Elly LHB · #1	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.21	20.3%	+393	20¢	16¢	190
32	Seager, Corey LHB · #3	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.01	20.2%	+395	20¢	16¢	111
33	Adell, Jo RHB · #4	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.10	20.0%	+400	20¢	16¢	95
34	Trout, Mike RHB · #2	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.92	20.0%	+401	20¢	16¢	173
35	Witt Jr., Bobby RHB · #2	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.09	19.8%	+406	20¢	16¢	223
36	Greene, Riley LHB · #4	SF	JT Brubaker	x0.91	19.7%	+407	20¢	16¢	204
37	Serven, Brian RHB · #6	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.23	19.6%	+410	20¢	16¢	11
38	Bleday, JJ LHB · #3	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.21	19.4%	+414	19¢	15¢	167
39	House, Brady RHB · #3	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.22	19.3%	+418	19¢	15¢	89
40	Valdez, Esmerlyn RHB · #4	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.96	19.3%	+419	19¢	15¢	34
41	McMahon, Ryan LHB · #8	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.47	19.2%	+420	19¢	15¢	136
42	Castro, Willi LHB · #6	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.19	19.1%	+423	19¢	15¢	153
43	Chisholm Jr., Jazz LHB · #5	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.47	19.0%	+427	19¢	15¢	168
44	Lile, Daylen LHB · #4	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.21	18.9%	+429	19¢	15¢	259
45	Acuña Jr., Ronald RHB · #1	NYY	Max Fried	x1.27	18.9%	+429	19¢	15¢	52
46	Nimmo, Brandon LHB · #4	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.01	18.9%	+430	19¢	15¢	229
47	Basabe, Osleivis RHB · #7	SF	Keider Montero	x1.02	18.7%	+434	19¢	15¢	11
48	Clemens, Kody LHB · #5	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.06	18.6%	+436	19¢	15¢	68
49	Tatis Jr., Fernando RHB · #1	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.94	18.2%	+451	18¢	14¢	283
50	Heim, Jonah RHB · #3	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.23	17.9%	+460	18¢	14¢	91
51	Jeffers, Ryan RHB · #2	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.04	17.7%	+466	18¢	14¢	55
52	Lindor, Francisco LHB · #2	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.97	17.6%	+467	18¢	14¢	124
53	Murakami, Munetaka LHB · #2	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.09	17.6%	+468	18¢	14¢	49
54	Turang, Brice LHB · #1	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.06	17.6%	+469	18¢	14¢	229
55	Canzone, Dominic LHB · #4	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.92	17.5%	+472	17¢	14¢	197
56	Stowers, Kyle LHB · #1	MIA	George Klassen	x0.90	17.4%	+474	17¢	14¢	169
57	Yelich, Christian LHB · #6	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.06	17.4%	+475	17¢	14¢	158
58	Conine, Griffin LHB · #3	MIA	George Klassen	x0.90	17.4%	+476	17¢	14¢	71
59	Okamoto, Kazuma RHB · #5	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.15	17.3%	+479	17¢	14¢	204
60	Crow-Armstrong, Pete LHB · #1	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.07	17.3%	+479	17¢	14¢	95
61	Ortiz, Abimelec LHB · #2	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.21	17.2%	+480	17¢	14¢	9
62	Hoskins, Rhys RHB · #6	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.10	17.2%	+481	17¢	14¢	55
63	Young, Jared LHB · #5	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.97	17.2%	+483	17¢	14¢	129
64	Torkelson, Spencer RHB · #6	SF	JT Brubaker	x1.02	17.0%	+489	17¢	13¢	184
65	Perez, Salvador RHB · #4	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.09	17.0%	+490	17¢	13¢	244
66	Pederson, Joc LHB · #1	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.01	16.9%	+491	17¢	13¢	211
67	Lowe, Brandon LHB · #2	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.97	16.8%	+495	17¢	13¢	82
68	Jensen, Carter LHB · #1	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.07	16.8%	+495	17¢	13¢	188
69	Soderstrom, Tyler LHB · #4	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.20	16.8%	+495	17¢	13¢	87
70	Lombard Jr., George RHB · #7	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.27	16.8%	+497	17¢	13¢	4
71	Henderson, Gunnar LHB · #1	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.01	16.7%	+498	17¢	13¢	235
72	Alonso, Pete RHB · #2	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.00	16.7%	+499	17¢	13¢	215
73	Bolte, Henry RHB · #1	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.23	16.6%	+501	17¢	13¢	54
74	Crews, Dylan RHB · #5	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.22	16.6%	+503	17¢	13¢	113
75	Hayes, Ke'Bryan RHB · #8	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.22	16.6%	+503	17¢	13¢	90
76	Merrill, Jackson LHB · #5	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.93	16.6%	+504	17¢	13¢	236
77	Eldridge, Bryce LHB · #1	SF	Keider Montero	x0.91	16.5%	+505	17¢	13¢	127
78	Contreras, William RHB · #4	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.04	16.5%	+506	16¢	13¢	261
79	Betts, Mookie RHB · #5	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.01	16.5%	+506	16¢	13¢	177
80	Rumfield, TJ LHB · #5	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.19	16.4%	+508	16¢	13¢	231
81	Díaz, Yandy RHB · #1	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.93	16.3%	+513	16¢	13¢	250
82	Marte, Starling RHB · #8	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.09	16.3%	+513	16¢	13¢	26
83	Grichuk, Randal RHB · #4	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.10	16.3%	+513	16¢	13¢	79
84	Ramírez, José RHB · #3	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.10	16.2%	+517	16¢	13¢	81
85	Muncy, Max RHB · #8	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.23	16.2%	+517	16¢	13¢	40
86	Caissie, Owen LHB · #5	MIA	George Klassen	x0.90	16.2%	+519	16¢	13¢	122
87	Suzuki, Seiya RHB · #2	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.09	16.1%	+520	16¢	13¢	77
88	Martínez, Angel RHB · #5	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.10	16.1%	+522	16¢	13¢	77
89	Reynolds, Bryan RHB · #3	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.96	16.0%	+524	16¢	13¢	107
90	Aranda, Jonathan LHB · #2	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.92	16.0%	+525	16¢	13¢	223
91	Machado, Manny RHB · #3	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.94	15.9%	+527	16¢	13¢	238
92	Hernández, Teoscar RHB · #7	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.01	15.8%	+533	16¢	12¢	143
93	Duran, Jarren LHB · #7	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.20	15.7%	+536	16¢	12¢	214
94	Marsh, Brandon LHB · #6	PHI	José Soriano	x1.16	15.7%	+537	16¢	12¢	232
95	Bell, Josh RHB · #4	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.04	15.7%	+539	16¢	12¢	103
96	Marte, Ketel LHB · #4	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.02	15.6%	+541	16¢	12¢	272
97	Busch, Michael LHB · #4	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.07	15.6%	+542	16¢	12¢	101
98	Crooks, Jimmy LHB · #5	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.19	15.6%	+543	16¢	12¢	55
99	Cowser, Colton LHB · #8	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.01	15.5%	+545	16¢	12¢	137
100	Prieto, César LHB · #9	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.19	15.3%	+551	15¢	12¢	14
101	Feduccia, Hunter LHB · #9	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.02	15.3%	+552	15¢	12¢	83
102	Neto, Zach RHB · #4	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.92	15.2%	+556	15¢	12¢	206
103	Torres, Bryan LHB · #8	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.19	15.2%	+557	15¢	12¢	59
104	Devers, Rafael LHB · #4	SF	Keider Montero	x0.91	15.2%	+559	15¢	12¢	209
105	Pages, Andy RHB · #2	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.01	15.2%	+559	15¢	12¢	250
106	Moreno, Gabriel RHB · #3	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.01	15.2%	+560	15¢	12¢	190
107	Suárez, Eugenio RHB · #5	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.22	15.1%	+563	15¢	12¢	137
108	Mesa Jr., Victor LHB · #7	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.92	15.0%	+568	15¢	12¢	79
109	Montgomery, Colson LHB · #5	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.09	14.9%	+572	15¢	12¢	87
110	Wells, Austin LHB · #9	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.47	14.8%	+573	15¢	12¢	109
111	Carrigg, Cole LHB · #2	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.19	14.8%	+574	15¢	12¢	65
112	Genao, Angel RHB · #9	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.10	14.8%	+577	15¢	12¢	2
113	Julien, Edouard LHB · #9	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.19	14.8%	+578	15¢	12¢	152
114	Ewing, A.J. LHB · #1	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.97	14.7%	+579	15¢	12¢	149
115	Walker, Christian RHB · #5	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.94	14.6%	+584	15¢	11¢	64
116	Tucker, Kyle LHB · #6	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.02	14.5%	+589	14¢	11¢	211
117	Wetherholt, JJ LHB · #1	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.19	14.4%	+593	14¢	11¢	220
118	McCarthy, Jake LHB · #1	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.19	14.4%	+594	14¢	11¢	220
119	Burger, Jake RHB · #7	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.00	14.3%	+597	14¢	11¢	224
120	Edman, Tommy LHB · #8	ARI	Merrill Kelly	x1.02	14.3%	+599	14¢	11¢	72
121	Springer, George RHB · #4	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.15	14.3%	+600	14¢	11¢	188
122	Church, Nathan LHB · #7	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.19	14.2%	+602	14¢	11¢	181
123	Jones, Spencer LHB · #6	NYY	Tyler Mahle	x1.47	14.2%	+602	14¢	11¢	48
124	Holliday, Jackson LHB · #3	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.01	14.2%	+602	14¢	11¢	99
125	Campusano, Luis RHB · #6	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.94	14.1%	+609	14¢	11¢	66
126	White, Tommy RHB · #5	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.23	14.0%	+615	14¢	11¢	24
127	Tawa, Tim RHB · #8	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.01	13.9%	+618	14¢	11¢	93
128	Stott, Bryson LHB · #8	PHI	José Soriano	x1.16	13.9%	+618	14¢	11¢	241
129	DeLauter, Chase LHB · #2	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.09	13.9%	+619	14¢	11¢	93
130	McGonigle, Kevin LHB · #1	SF	JT Brubaker	x0.91	13.8%	+623	14¢	11¢	254
131	Baty, Brett LHB · #7	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.97	13.8%	+622	14¢	11¢	192
132	Monasterio, Andruw RHB · #6	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.23	13.8%	+624	14¢	11¢	104
133	Tolbert, Tyler RHB · #9	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.09	13.8%	+625	14¢	11¢	32
134	Riley, Austin RHB · #7	NYY	Max Fried	x1.27	13.7%	+628	14¢	11¢	85
135	Happ, Ian RHB · #6	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.09	13.7%	+628	14¢	11¢	73
136	Smith, Cam RHB · #8	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.94	13.7%	+631	14¢	11¢	73
137	Tovar, Ezequiel RHB · #7	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.21	13.7%	+633	14¢	11¢	201
138	Kelly, Carson RHB · #7	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.09	13.6%	+634	14¢	11¢	75
139	Rafaela, Ceddanne RHB · #2	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.23	13.6%	+634	14¢	11¢	251
140	Ford, Harry RHB · #6	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.22	13.5%	+643	13¢	11¢	9
141	Kepler, Max LHB · #7	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.02	13.5%	+643	13¢	11¢	66
142	Grissom, Vaughn RHB · #5	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.92	13.5%	+643	13¢	11¢	134
143	McLain, Matt RHB · #9	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.22	13.4%	+648	13¢	10¢	149
144	Herrera, Iván RHB · #4	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.21	13.4%	+647	13¢	10¢	234
145	Rodríguez, Héctor LHB · #6	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.21	13.3%	+654	13¢	10¢	2
146	Lara, Luis LHB · #7	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.06	13.1%	+664	13¢	10¢	39
147	Langford, Wyatt RHB · #2	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.00	13.1%	+665	13¢	10¢	139
148	Turner, Trea RHB · #2	PHI	José Soriano	x1.15	13.0%	+667	13¢	10¢	240
149	Arenado, Nolan RHB · #6	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.01	13.0%	+668	13¢	10¢	210
150	Nootbaar, Lars LHB · #5	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.02	13.0%	+669	13¢	10¢	103
151	Rogers, Jake RHB · #9	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.23	13.0%	+671	13¢	10¢	53
152	Flores Jr., Rafael RHB · #9	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.96	13.0%	+670	13¢	10¢	7
153	Meyers, Jake RHB · #9	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.94	12.9%	+674	13¢	10¢	37
154	Adames, Willy RHB · #3	SF	Keider Montero	x1.02	12.8%	+682	13¢	10¢	225
155	Young, Jacob RHB · #9	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.22	12.7%	+686	13¢	10¢	165
156	Raleigh, Cal LHB · #8	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.92	12.7%	+690	13¢	10¢	135
157	Lowe, Josh LHB · #8	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.90	12.7%	+690	13¢	10¢	122
158	Waldschmidt, Ryan RHB · #9	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.01	12.6%	+694	13¢	10¢	79
159	Horwitz, Spencer LHB · #5	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.97	12.5%	+698	13¢	10¢	37
160	Arozarena, Randy RHB · #3	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.93	12.5%	+698	13¢	10¢	222
161	Tena, José LHB · #8	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.21	12.5%	+699	13¢	10¢	130
162	Benge, Carson LHB · #4	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.97	12.5%	+703	12¢	10¢	247
163	Paredes, Isaac RHB · #3	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.94	12.4%	+704	12¢	10¢	75
164	Caratini, Victor RHB · #8	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.04	12.4%	+706	12¢	10¢	57
165	Peña, Jeremy RHB · #1	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.94	12.4%	+706	12¢	10¢	40
166	Beavers, Dylan LHB · #5	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.01	12.2%	+718	12¢	10¢	109
167	Ornelas, Jonathan RHB · #9	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.23	12.2%	+722	12¢	9¢	4
168	Keith, Colt LHB · #5	SF	JT Brubaker	x0.91	12.1%	+725	12¢	9¢	226
169	Mack, Joe LHB · #8	MIA	George Klassen	x0.90	12.1%	+727	12¢	9¢	118
170	DeLuca, Jonny RHB · #6	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.93	12.0%	+730	12¢	9¢	97
171	Duran, Ezequiel RHB · #5	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.00	11.9%	+739	12¢	9¢	219
172	Rodríguez, Julio RHB · #5	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.93	11.8%	+745	12¢	9¢	232
173	Hedges, Austin RHB · #8	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.10	11.8%	+749	12¢	9¢	68
174	Lopez, Otto RHB · #2	MIA	George Klassen	x0.92	11.8%	+751	12¢	9¢	292
175	Ballesteros, Moisés LHB · #6	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.90	11.7%	+755	12¢	9¢	121
176	Loftin, Nick RHB · #6	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.09	11.6%	+759	12¢	9¢	119
177	Smith, Josh LHB · #8	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.16	11.5%	+769	12¢	9¢	100
178	Butler, Lawrence LHB · #7	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.20	11.5%	+773	11¢	9¢	49
179	Massey, Michael LHB · #7	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.07	11.5%	+773	11¢	9¢	197
180	Simon, Ronny RHB · #7	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.96	11.3%	+781	11¢	9¢	1
181	Sheets, Gavin LHB · #7	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.93	11.3%	+782	11¢	9¢	201
182	Kreidler, Ryan RHB · #9	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.04	11.3%	+782	11¢	9¢	60
183	Rocchio, Brayan RHB · #7	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.10	11.2%	+795	11¢	9¢	104
184	Altuve, Jose RHB · #4	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.94	11.1%	+798	11¢	9¢	64
185	Swanson, Dansby RHB · #9	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.09	11.1%	+800	11¢	9¢	80
186	Realmuto, J.T. RHB · #7	PHI	José Soriano	x1.15	11.1%	+804	11¢	9¢	160
187	O'Neill, Tyler RHB · #4	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.00	11.1%	+805	11¢	9¢	63
188	Torres, Gleyber RHB · #2	SF	JT Brubaker	x1.02	11.0%	+806	11¢	9¢	126
189	Young, Cole LHB · #2	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.92	11.0%	+807	11¢	9¢	240
190	Pratt, Cooper RHB · #8	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.04	10.9%	+818	11¢	8¢	81
191	Taveras, Leody LHB · #6	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.01	10.8%	+822	11¢	8¢	156
192	Albies, Ozzie RHB · #3	NYY	Max Fried	x1.27	10.8%	+825	11¢	8¢	176
193	Bregman, Alex RHB · #3	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.09	10.7%	+834	11¢	8¢	92
194	McCray, Grant LHB · #8	SF	Keider Montero	x0.91	10.6%	+842	11¢	8¢	16
195	Semien, Marcus RHB · #6	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.96	10.6%	+844	11¢	8¢	199
196	Meidroth, Chase RHB · #1	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.10	10.6%	+847	11¢	8¢	90
197	Carter, Evan LHB · #6	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.01	10.6%	+847	11¢	8¢	173
198	Doyle, Brenton RHB · #6	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.10	10.5%	+852	10¢	8¢	28
199	Ramírez, Pedro RHB · #8	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.09	10.5%	+855	10¢	8¢	18
200	Thomas, Lane RHB · #6	NYY	Max Fried	x1.27	10.4%	+862	10¢	8¢	88
201	Susac, Daniel RHB · #5	SF	Keider Montero	x1.02	10.4%	+865	10¢	8¢	72
202	Hamilton, David LHB · #9	MIL	Zebby Matthews	x1.06	10.3%	+869	10¢	8¢	154
203	Varsho, Daulton LHB · #6	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.93	10.2%	+876	10¢	8¢	66
204	Winn, Masyn RHB · #6	STL	Ryan Feltner	x1.21	10.2%	+882	10¢	8¢	222
205	Murphy, Sean RHB · #8	NYY	Max Fried	x1.27	10.1%	+887	10¢	8¢	3
206	Sogard, Nick LHB · #1	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.20	10.1%	+891	10¢	8¢	37
207	Wilson, Jacob RHB · #2	BOS	Payton Tolle	x1.23	10.1%	+892	10¢	8¢	91
208	Diaz, Yainer RHB · #7	SD	Robbie Ray	x0.94	10.1%	+892	10¢	8¢	45
209	Bogaerts, Xander RHB · #8	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.94	10.1%	+894	10¢	8¢	218
210	Cronenworth, Jake LHB · #2	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.93	10.1%	+895	10¢	8¢	124
211	Collins, Isaac LHB · #5	KC	Kevin Gausman	x1.07	10.0%	+901	10¢	8¢	163
212	Seigler, Anthony LHB · #8	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.20	9.9%	+908	10¢	8¢	72
213	Narváez, Carlos RHB · #9	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.00	9.8%	+917	10¢	8¢	91
214	Meckler, Wade LHB · #1	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.90	9.7%	+935	10¢	7¢	110
215	Dubón, Mauricio RHB · #5	NYY	Max Fried	x1.27	9.7%	+937	10¢	7¢	135
216	Hicks, Liam LHB · #4	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.92	9.6%	+946	10¢	7¢	260
217	Perdomo, Geraldo LHB · #1	ARI	Roki Sasaki	x1.02	9.5%	+949	10¢	7¢	246
218	Bichette, Bo RHB · #3	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.96	9.5%	+953	9¢	7¢	275
219	Marte, Noelvi RHB · #7	WSH	Cade Cavalli	x1.22	9.5%	+956	9¢	7¢	97
220	Rengifo, Luis LHB · #4	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.93	9.4%	+960	9¢	7¢	134
221	Giménez, Andrés LHB · #6	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.16	9.3%	+972	9¢	7¢	202
222	Bohm, Alec RHB · #5	PHI	José Soriano	x1.15	9.3%	+975	9¢	7¢	240
223	Kirk, Alejandro RHB · #2	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.15	9.2%	+984	9¢	7¢	88
224	Kim, Ha-Seong RHB · #9	NYY	Max Fried	x1.27	9.1%	+999	9¢	7¢	25
225	Koss, Christian RHB · #9	SF	Keider Montero	x1.02	9.1%	+1000	9¢	7¢	27
226	Yoshida, Masataka LHB · #5	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.20	9.0%	+1015	9¢	7¢	189
227	Clark, Max LHB · #7	SF	JT Brubaker	x0.91	8.9%	+1022	9¢	7¢	11
228	Donovan, Brendan LHB · #7	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.92	8.9%	+1026	9¢	7¢	55
229	Jiménez, Leo RHB · #6	MIA	George Klassen	x0.92	8.8%	+1040	9¢	7¢	51
230	Keaschall, Luke RHB · #6	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.04	8.7%	+1044	9¢	7¢	89
231	Song, Sung-Mun LHB · #9	SD	Ronel Blanco	x0.93	8.7%	+1047	9¢	7¢	77
232	Ruiz, Esteury RHB · #9	MIA	George Klassen	x0.92	8.6%	+1069	9¢	7¢	43
233	Martin, Austin RHB · #1	MIL	Shane Drohan	x1.04	8.5%	+1078	8¢	6¢	91
234	Mayo, Coby RHB · #7	TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	x1.00	8.5%	+1079	8¢	6¢	105
235	Palacios, Richie LHB · #8	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.92	8.4%	+1092	8¢	6¢	155
236	Quero, Edgar RHB · #8	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.10	8.2%	+1118	8¢	6¢	52
237	Ward, Taylor RHB · #1	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.93	8.2%	+1119	8¢	6¢	229
238	Polanco, Jorge LHB · #8	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.97	8.1%	+1132	8¢	6¢	64
239	Montgomery, Braden RHB · #7	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.10	7.9%	+1163	8¢	6¢	33
240	Lee, Jung Hoo LHB · #2	SF	Keider Montero	x0.91	7.9%	+1169	8¢	6¢	261
241	Naylor, Josh LHB · #6	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.92	7.8%	+1175	8¢	6¢	257
242	Johnston, Troy LHB · #8	STL	Kyle Leahy	x1.19	7.7%	+1197	8¢	6¢	192
243	Acuña, Luisangel RHB · #9	CWS	Parker Messick	x1.10	7.6%	+1207	8¢	6¢	67
244	Báez, Javier RHB · #8	SF	JT Brubaker	x1.02	7.5%	+1228	8¢	6¢	63
245	Durbin, Caleb RHB · #4	BOS	Jack Perkins	x1.23	7.5%	+1232	8¢	6¢	221
246	Edwards, Xavier LHB · #4	MIA	George Klassen	x0.90	7.3%	+1260	7¢	6¢	280
247	Gilbert, Drew LHB · #6	SF	Keider Montero	x0.91	7.3%	+1273	7¢	5¢	168
248	Triolo, Jared RHB · #8	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.96	7.1%	+1299	7¢	5¢	65
249	Marsee, Jakob LHB · #7	MIA	George Klassen	x0.90	7.1%	+1308	7¢	5¢	223
250	Díaz, Elias RHB · #8	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.00	7.0%	+1321	7¢	5¢	62
251	Walls, Taylor LHB · #9	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.92	7.0%	+1321	7¢	5¢	122
252	Peraza, Oswald RHB · #7	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.92	7.0%	+1332	7¢	5¢	123
253	Clement, Ernie RHB · #7	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.15	6.9%	+1345	7¢	5¢	284
254	Torrens, Luis RHB · #9	PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	x0.96	6.9%	+1353	7¢	5¢	104
255	Emerson, Colt LHB · #9	SEA	Drew Rasmussen	x0.92	6.7%	+1393	7¢	5¢	95
256	Mangum, Jake RHB · #1	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.96	6.7%	+1397	7¢	5¢	61
257	Gonzales, Nick RHB · #6	PIT	Zac Thornton	x0.96	6.7%	+1403	7¢	5¢	106
258	Arraez, Luis LHB · #4	PHI	José Soriano	x1.16	6.4%	+1452	6¢	5¢	302
259	Lukes, Nathan LHB · #1	PHI	Zack Wheeler	x1.16	6.4%	+1470	6¢	5¢	193
260	Heineman, Tyler LHB · #9	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.90	6.3%	+1475	6¢	5¢	69
261	Schanuel, Nolan LHB · #3	MIA	Tyler Phillips	x0.90	6.3%	+1483	6¢	5¢	223
262	McKinstry, Zach LHB · #9	SF	JT Brubaker	x0.91	6.2%	+1500	6¢	5¢	184
263	Hoerner, Nico RHB · #5	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x1.09	6.2%	+1515	6¢	5¢	109
264	Kwan, Steven LHB · #1	CWS	Noah Schultz	x1.09	5.6%	+1696	6¢	4¢	89
265	Crawford, Justin LHB · #9	PHI	José Soriano	x1.16	5.4%	+1761	5¢	4¢	213
266	Lopez, Nicky LHB · #9	TEX	Shane Baz	x1.01	4.1%	+2323	4¢	3¢	111
267	Nuñez, Nasim LHB · #7	WSH	Chase Petty	x1.21	4.0%	+2369	4¢	3¢	178
268	Simpson, Chandler LHB · #5	SEA	Logan Gilbert	x0.92	2.7%	+3572	3¢	2¢	247

Game HR totals

Game	Park	Exp. HR	P(3+ HR)
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	NYY	3.53	68%
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	STL	3.24	63%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	ARI	3.17	61%
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	WSH	3.14	61%
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	MIL	2.87	55%
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	KC	2.72	51%
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	BOS	2.65	49%
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	CWS	2.56	47%
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	SD	2.48	45%
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	TEX	2.47	45%
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	SF	2.39	43%
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	PIT	2.33	41%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	PHI	2.28	40%
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	MIA	2.20	38%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	SEA	2.19	38%

Expected combined home runs, both teams, from summing every hitter's modeled rate; P(3+) is the Poisson chance the game clears a 2.5 line.

How to read it: "Fair ¢" is the model's probability as a prediction-market price; "Bid ≤" is the maximum resting bid that keeps an 18%+ edge after the maker's margin -- offers above it are paying more than the model thinks the outcome is worth. P(HR) is the model's probability the player hits at least one home run tonight. "Fair odds" is that probability expressed as an American line -- a posted price longer than fair suggests value, shorter suggests the market likes him more than the model does. BBE is the batted-ball sample behind his talent estimate; small samples are regressed hard toward league average.

Model probabilities, not betting advice. Environment factors are approximations under continuous calibration. Lineups update through the afternoon; rerun snapshots may differ.